2018 Senate races


#1

Here are the eight states to watch that will likely have competitive Senate races this year.

Indiana
West Virginia
North Dakota
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
Arizona
Florida

Five Democratic Senators are up for reelection in Indiana, WV, ND, Missouri and Montana. Trump won Indiana, WV, ND, Missouri and Montana all by double digits. I think that Republicans will end up picking at least two of these Senate seats.

Republican Senator Dean Heller is up for reelection in Nevada this year. Since Trump ended up losing in Nevada by 2.4% to Hillary, I don’t think that Heller will win his reelection bid.

GOP Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona is not running for reelection this year. Arizona is not as red of a state as it used to be. Both McCain and Romney won Arizona by larger margins than Trump. Trump won Georgia and Ohio by larger margins than he did Arizona here. The Primaries haven’t happened in Arizona yet, but it is likely going to be between Democratic Congresswoman Sinema and Republican Congresswoman McSally. It should be a pretty close Senate race, but I think that Sinema is going to win this Senate race. And Sinema has been leading in the polls over McSally and over the two other Republicans running.

Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is up for reelection from Florida this year. He will be facing GOP Governor Rick Scott who is pretty popular there. Despite Hillary winning Miami-Dade County by 29.4%, she still lost Florida to Trump by 1.2%. This Senate race should be very close, and I have no idea who will win it between Nelson and Scott.


#2

Two quick notes.

Heller is toast.

I think Scott has a reasonable chance in Florida. He has been running a much better campaign then Nelson and his attacks on Nelson’s longevity in Washington, D.C. are having an effect in Scott’s favor.


#3

I meant to type Georgia in the second to last paragraph. “Trump won Georgia and Ohio by larger margins than he did Arizona here.”


#4

I think that Heller is toast too. Of the eight states from that list, Nevada was the one that was lost by Trump. The other seven states were won by Trump.


#5

As of now, it looks like the seats most likely to flip are ND, IN and FL. Marsha Blackburn now has a big lead in TN, and that was one seat Ds thought they might flip.

I also think MO could flip. Manchin and Tester have decent leads so the chances of Rs taking that are not good at the moment.

So Ds will probably gain two, Rs could gain 3 or maybe 4.

I’m not sure that even voting for Kavanaugh will help Heitkamp, who looks the most vulnerable. Some pundits are already rating that race as lean R. And if Heitkamp votes to confirm after McConnell already has all the R votes, its’ going to look like she only did so to try and save her seat. Especially if every other D (except maybe Donnelly) vote no.

It will be interesting to see what Nelson does too though. Rick Scott has a great chance at defeating him.


#6

ill wait and watch…lots of time left…2 weeks out is when ill really care.


#7

Here is a MO poll showing Hawley with a very slight lead. It’s within the MOE, so the race is basically tied. Not a good place for an incumbent to be though.

And Trump has a 50% approval rating there.


#8

Just an FYI my friend…

RCP has Breseden with a +5 lead over Blackburn still. Although the last polling was done at the end of April. Where are you seeing that she has a big lead over him now?

I do as well. And hopefully so!

Some interesting information about the Tester race. This was a big win for him, considering that the Libertarian will be on the ballot as well, which could make the difference in him saving his seat.


#9

Thanks for this link. I had not seen this one yet.

I will say that if the Trump trade war continues to have negative impact on Missouri farmers, as it is already showing as having, and farmers across my great state continue to lose land value and income, then this could really turn the tide for McCaskill over Hawley.

Local talk radio devotes about half of its programming now to the trade war and Trump’s tariffs, and the negative impact on the state’s agriculture business. The hosts all try to maintain a “wait and see” optimism, as they are deeply devout to Trump, but more and more callers, actual voters, are starting to turn against both the hosts and Trump. Telling stories of generations of family farms now on the cusp of bankruptcy. The fear is palpable.


#10

Perhaps you could show us a poll in which Mashburn has a big lead.
Just one with even Mashburn winning at all.
Cannot find even one.
Cook still has it in the toss up column.

Thanks in advance.

Allan


#11

One that is not survey monkey–One of the worst pollsters around.

SM is not even worthy of picking up dog poo…

Allan


#12

Mid term elections always favor Republicans, it seems like these Dems voters really dont care or really just uninformed when there are elections other than a Presidential election. It’s kinda of sad


#14

You have a short term elephant memory.

2006 midterms. Dems +5 senate +31 house.

Allan


#15

I disagree the 8 states to watch are:

Dems at risk

Florida
Indiana
Missouri
north Dakota
West Virginia

Reps at Risk

Arizona
Nevada
Tennessee

Allan


#16

Yes it is, but Nelson is likely going to need to win Miami-Dade County by at least 28% if he wants to win his reelection bid. Florida outside of Miami-Dade and Orange Counties have gotten redder over the last several years.


#17

I thought about putting Tennessee on my list, but I think that it is very unlikely that Republicans are going to lose that Senate seat. Trump won Tennessee by as much as 26 percentage points.


#18

Some food for thought on the Florida Senate race. I found this interesting.

But the timing of Nelson’s endorsement—as quintessentially stiff as it sounded: “I support, and have with my vote, medical marijuana recommended by a physician”—perhaps should not have been so surprising. Less than a week earlier, a judge ruled the state’s ban on smokable medical marijuana was unconstitutional. Governor Rick Scott, who is running to unseat Nelson in November, quickly appealed the judge’s ruling, placing him on the opposite side of 6.5 million Florida voters, 1.9 million more than had voted for President Donald Trump. Even Republicans in Florida saw the potential advantage that this could give Nelson.


#19

No one thinks Tammy Baldwin-D is at risk?

Hope y’all are correct!


#20

That’s not true.

Do you people ever look up anything to see if what you are going to post is actually true or is just something you think is?


#21

They want a queen.