Here are the eight states to watch that will likely have competitive Senate races this year.
Five Democratic Senators are up for reelection in Indiana, WV, ND, Missouri and Montana. Trump won Indiana, WV, ND, Missouri and Montana all by double digits. I think that Republicans will end up picking at least two of these Senate seats.
Republican Senator Dean Heller is up for reelection in Nevada this year. Since Trump ended up losing in Nevada by 2.4% to Hillary, I don’t think that Heller will win his reelection bid.
GOP Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona is not running for reelection this year. Arizona is not as red of a state as it used to be. Both McCain and Romney won Arizona by larger margins than Trump. Trump won Georgia and Ohio by larger margins than he did Arizona here. The Primaries haven’t happened in Arizona yet, but it is likely going to be between Democratic Congresswoman Sinema and Republican Congresswoman McSally. It should be a pretty close Senate race, but I think that Sinema is going to win this Senate race. And Sinema has been leading in the polls over McSally and over the two other Republicans running.
Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is up for reelection from Florida this year. He will be facing GOP Governor Rick Scott who is pretty popular there. Despite Hillary winning Miami-Dade County by 29.4%, she still lost Florida to Trump by 1.2%. This Senate race should be very close, and I have no idea who will win it between Nelson and Scott.