There will undoubtedly be a “One and Only” midterms thread coming soon, but I wanted to start a predictions thread for the upcoming elections. So please, make some predictions, makes some bets, throw out some what-if scenarios … go wild!
The prevailing wind of thought is that Democrats are poised to take back the house (first since 2010), but fall short of the Senate. Republicans might actually pick up a few seats in the Senate.
Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent support the Republican.
The Democrats’ four-point edge represents a superficial advantage with Republicans, given the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. Still, the finding marks a sharp turn from 2016, when voters in these districts backed Republicans by a margin of 15 percentage points. With 63 of the battleground districts held by Republicans, that kind of shift in sentiment would be sufficient for Democrats to take control of the House. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to win the majority.
So what do y’all think? I’m cautiously optimistic that the Dems will take back the house. Republicans will most likely retain the Senate, but that could change depending on the turnout by Dems. Depending on the size of the blue wave, we could see a unified Dem congress next week. Unlikely, but possible.
So as a sub-story to the upcoming elections, it’s no secret that Trump has made this election about himself. Going as far as to make the elections a referendum on his presidency.
“I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me,” Trump boomed this month at a rally in Southaven, Miss. “I want you to vote. Pretend I’m on the ballot.”
And yet, when asked, Trump won’t take responsibility if Republicans lose the house.
AP: So my question is, if Republicans were to lose control of the House on November 6th — or a couple of days later depending on how long it takes to count the votes — do you believe you bear some responsibility for that?
After what happened in 2016, the Dems picking up any seats is a win. Full stop. Taking over the House would be a huge deal. Seeing the “Blue Wave” as just taking over the House is near sighted.
That said, it won’t stop CEC commentators from downplaying any gains by Dems next week.
This will be painted as a split decision on the Trump presidency when the exact same thing happened to Obama it was seen as a total rebuke of policies.
GOP will end up with 260 seats. The GOP has been marginalized and ■■■■ on by the liberals for years. Well you guys are about to get your cummuffins this time around.
All good, brother. Mine got shuffled down the pike pretty quickly with all the synagogue news and Trump worshippers hyperventilating over Don Lemon and the caravan.
I am predicting that the Democrats will take back the House and pick up somewhere between 30 and 40 House seats. As for the Senate, I am predicting that the Republicans will pick up North Dakota while the Democrats will hold on unto Florida, Indiana, West Virginia and Montana. Missouri, Nevada and Arizona here are still close for me to predict who will win these three Senate seats.
Yes I was. A lot of people, myself included got it wrong. I’d hope that media sources and political prognosticators will apply what they learned in 2016 to the '18 Midterms. Which I think most have. And honestly, I think it’s a bit easier to make predictions about midterms versus presidential races. But, we shall see.
