There will undoubtedly be a “One and Only” midterms thread coming soon, but I wanted to start a predictions thread for the upcoming elections. So please, make some predictions, makes some bets, throw out some what-if scenarios … go wild!
The prevailing wind of thought is that Democrats are poised to take back the house (first since 2010), but fall short of the Senate. Republicans might actually pick up a few seats in the Senate.
Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent support the Republican.
The Democrats’ four-point edge represents a superficial advantage with Republicans, given the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. Still, the finding marks a sharp turn from 2016, when voters in these districts backed Republicans by a margin of 15 percentage points. With 63 of the battleground districts held by Republicans, that kind of shift in sentiment would be sufficient for Democrats to take control of the House. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to win the majority.
So what do y’all think? I’m cautiously optimistic that the Dems will take back the house. Republicans will most likely retain the Senate, but that could change depending on the turnout by Dems. Depending on the size of the blue wave, we could see a unified Dem congress next week. Unlikely, but possible.