100 days until November 3, 2020.
Trump’s situation is akin to President’s Ford, Carter and GHW Bush at the 100 day mark, all way underwater in the polls, 10 or more points. Trump is averaging 15 points underwater.
Not akin to President Truman who, though 6 points underwater, was able to come back in 1948.
The cavalry is not coming over the hill. There is no cure or vaccine that is going to arrive in nearly enough time to make any difference.
Even if they get the $600.00 a week dole restarted and made universal for everybody through the election, still will make no difference.
Trump has already damaged himself beyond repair.
This is not the election of 2016, it is the election of 2020. The unique dynamics of the 2016 election are long gone and not coming back.
The uneducated working class that put Trump over the top in the industrial mid west won’t be back.
Trump is losing support rapidly among seniors and has lost support in the suburbs. Arizona is likely out of reach. Losing seniors will likely lose Florida for Trump. The suburban belt of Charlotte will likely lose North Carolina for Trump. Iowa’s suburbia will likely narrowly deliver that State to Biden.
Simply put, there is no plausible route to 270 electoral votes for Trump.
As for the Senate at 100 days.
Jones loses in Alabama. D-1.
McSally loses in Arizona. R-1.
Tillis loses in North Carolina. R-1.
Gardner loses in Colorado. R-1.
Ernst loses in Iowa. R-1.
Collins loses in Maine. R-1.
Net Democratic gain of 4 seats.
Democrats gain control of the Senate 51 to 49.
As for the House of Representatives, anything from a net D+7 to a net R+7. Makes no ■■■■■■■ difference. Democrats still retain a substantial majority regardless of how the minor swing works out.
Democrats end up in full control of the Federal Government.
The one bright spot for Republicans is that Democratic Senate control will be extremely narrow. Red State and Swing State Democrats are not likely to go along with progressive Senators on nuking the filibuster completely. And they are likely going to stand in the way of progressive legislation coming out of the House of Representatives.
So at least there will be a substantial moderating influence in the government. Not nearly enough Democrats in the Senate for the far left to go nuts.
And that is a good thing. Don’t want to see the far left in control any more than I want to see the far right.
As far as State legislative seats go:
| — | — | — | — |
|Legislators (7,383 total)|3,834 / 52%|3,442/ 47%|107 (Independent, Other or Vacant)|
|Chambers (98 total)|59 / 60%|39 / 40%||
|Legislatures (49 total)|29 / 59%|19 / 38%|1 divided legislature|
|State Control (49 total)|21 / 43%|15 / 31%|13 divided states|
(Nebraska’s non-partisan, unicameral legislation is not included in the above chart.
Right now, Republicans have a narrow majority of seats nationwide and a large majority of chambers. I think Republicans could very well lose 200 seats nationwide, enough to give Democrats the majority of State legislators for the first time in a VERY long time. They will likely lose control of a number of chambers.
Extremely important, as Republicans will have very limited control over redistricting, meaning they will likely have a much more difficult time gaining control of the United States House of Representatives starting in 2022.
I also suspect that one of the first bills to pass in 2021 and perhaps Biden’s first bill to sign will be a Voting Rights Act Amendment which will permanently end the ability of parties to gerrymander and instead require all redistricting to be conducted by bipartisan commissions.