100 days until November 3, 2020

100 days until November 3, 2020.

Trump’s situation is akin to President’s Ford, Carter and GHW Bush at the 100 day mark, all way underwater in the polls, 10 or more points. Trump is averaging 15 points underwater.

Not akin to President Truman who, though 6 points underwater, was able to come back in 1948.

The cavalry is not coming over the hill. There is no cure or vaccine that is going to arrive in nearly enough time to make any difference.

Even if they get the $600.00 a week dole restarted and made universal for everybody through the election, still will make no difference.

Trump has already damaged himself beyond repair.

This is not the election of 2016, it is the election of 2020. The unique dynamics of the 2016 election are long gone and not coming back.

The uneducated working class that put Trump over the top in the industrial mid west won’t be back.

Trump is losing support rapidly among seniors and has lost support in the suburbs. Arizona is likely out of reach. Losing seniors will likely lose Florida for Trump. The suburban belt of Charlotte will likely lose North Carolina for Trump. Iowa’s suburbia will likely narrowly deliver that State to Biden.

Simply put, there is no plausible route to 270 electoral votes for Trump.

As for the Senate at 100 days.

Jones loses in Alabama. D-1.

McSally loses in Arizona. R-1.
Tillis loses in North Carolina. R-1.
Gardner loses in Colorado. R-1.
Ernst loses in Iowa. R-1.
Collins loses in Maine. R-1.

Net Democratic gain of 4 seats.

Democrats gain control of the Senate 51 to 49.

As for the House of Representatives, anything from a net D+7 to a net R+7. Makes no ■■■■■■■ difference. Democrats still retain a substantial majority regardless of how the minor swing works out.

Democrats end up in full control of the Federal Government.

The one bright spot for Republicans is that Democratic Senate control will be extremely narrow. Red State and Swing State Democrats are not likely to go along with progressive Senators on nuking the filibuster completely. And they are likely going to stand in the way of progressive legislation coming out of the House of Representatives.

So at least there will be a substantial moderating influence in the government. Not nearly enough Democrats in the Senate for the far left to go nuts.

And that is a good thing. Don’t want to see the far left in control any more than I want to see the far right.

As far as State legislative seats go:

Current Composition||Republicans|Democrats|Other|
| — | — | — | — |
|Legislators (7,383 total)|3,834 / 52%|3,442/ 47%|107 (Independent, Other or Vacant)|
|Chambers (98 total)|59 / 60%|39 / 40%||
|Legislatures (49 total)|29 / 59%|19 / 38%|1 divided legislature|
|State Control (49 total)|21 / 43%|15 / 31%|13 divided states|

(Nebraska’s non-partisan, unicameral legislation is not included in the above chart.

Right now, Republicans have a narrow majority of seats nationwide and a large majority of chambers. I think Republicans could very well lose 200 seats nationwide, enough to give Democrats the majority of State legislators for the first time in a VERY long time. They will likely lose control of a number of chambers.

Extremely important, as Republicans will have very limited control over redistricting, meaning they will likely have a much more difficult time gaining control of the United States House of Representatives starting in 2022.

I also suspect that one of the first bills to pass in 2021 and perhaps Biden’s first bill to sign will be a Voting Rights Act Amendment which will permanently end the ability of parties to gerrymander and instead require all redistricting to be conducted by bipartisan commissions.

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I saw something in Wall Street Journal where 50% have completely ruled out voting for Trump whereas only 37% have done so for Biden; pretty bad news for the Trump campaign.

At this point, trump knows the less people turn out to vote, the more likely he is to win. So, he will try his best to degrade the voting process.

It is not unusual to see Trump rail against mail-in ballots on Twitter on the same day his campaign emails its supporters pleading with them to fill out their absentee ballot application. These [mixed signals] confuse voters, give his staff and supporters their marching orders and give new shadowy groups such as QAnon the ability to stir up confusion, disorder and distrust across numerous, unseen social media accounts.

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One can only hope that the defeat is substantial enough to ensure that Trump and his minions lose any influence over the GOP. The GOP needs to do a lot of soul searching during their respite over the next few years. We do need a strong 2nd party in the nation - hopefully, if the GOP can get it’s act together they can still be that party. If not, they need to go the way of the Whigs so another party - hopefully an actual conservative party this time - emerges to fill the spot that they left.

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If Trump loses Florida, he will lose the President election. According to the RCP Average, Trump is now down to Biden in Florida by 7.8 points.

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Still too close for comfort.

CNN state polls:

Florida
Joe Biden 51%
Donald Trump 46%

Arizona
Joe Biden 49%
Donald Trump 45%

Michigan
Joe Biden 52%
Donald Trump 40%

Biden will win Michigan.

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One more thing to consider: during a national crisis (such as this pandemic), there is normally a huge “rally around the flag” effect that gives the president a major bump in poll numbers. That hasn’t happened with Trump. I’m sure the reasons for that could be debated indefinitely, but the fact that he is doing this bad in polling despite a national crisis occurring is another major factor in play here.

Trump supporters keep saying he will win in a landslide, thought.

Most of the stuff I’ve read is saying a Democratic gain in the Senate of five to seven. Gardner and McSally are already finished. No point in even funding their races out of the national pot anymore. Alabama chose Tommy Tuberville, a dude with a closet overflowing with skeletons, over Sessions, who would have stomped Doug Jones into the ground, just to please Trump.

There are way more races in serious play than just those. Those are just the locks except Tuberville, which isn’t a lock.

You paint a rosy picture. I’ll believe it when I see Trump rage tweet about losing in November.

Agree on this one.

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Sounds like libs have this in the bag…congrats.

What do you think trump should do to reverse these poll numbers?

Nothing. The numbers are all fake.

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Check the averages, bud. Never look at just one poll.

Currently at RCP:

Florida : 7.8
Michigan : 8.4
Arizona : 4.0

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Provided twitter allows him to continue tweeting!

Good point, if trump loses on Nov. 3rd, Twitter can disable his account if he’s tries to incite violence.

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And they would. He’ll have to be more careful assuming he loses.

If Trump does manage to win again, it definitely won’t be in a landslide. Trump this time around will get less than 300 electoral votes. And Trump will lose the nationwide popular vote again.