(10/04) Sept. Jobs report: Employment rises 0.16%, "discouraged workers" surges 21%

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-04T14:15:39.343Z

The majority of the jobs in this sector are low wage:

https://www.careerbuilder.com/advice/blog/top-10-jobs-in-hospitality

In particularly if we are talking about if the majority of the jobs in this report are going to migrants then those are all of the low-wage variety.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:16:29.373Z

Impenitent:

that’s above board employees?

what about the millions of workers without social security numbers working under the table?

are they just selling fentanyl?

LOL
well the monthly report is based on a pretty good survey.

We have no reason to believe more people are lying now than lied before,
so, while any two/all of the numbers may be wrong the survey does a good job of letting us compare two periods.

The data says we had a good month in a bad overall picture.

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-04T14:19:30.959Z

FreeAndClear:

This is an interesting point. When you saw low wage jobs - are they largely higher than the median salary?

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:24:15.592Z

Eagle-Keeper:

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Sounds about right.

Note also 50 weeks at 40 hours per week equals 2,000 hours/year so
37,585 = $18.74 per hour.

The following has been true for a long time

half of all US workers work at McWages
a significant portion of the other half live and work in expensive places (NYC) where $22 an hour is still a McWage.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:29:46.922Z

Looking now at the second part of the data

image1035×633 212 KB

“Marginally attached” up 204,000 in a single month including
“Discouraged workers” up 78,000 in a single month.

Best guess:
The constipated real estate market is having very very real implications for jobs and job-mobility. Jerome Powell has screwed so many people he should have an OnlyFans channel.

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:01:18.430Z

Eagle-Keeper:

The majority of the jobs in this sector are low wage:

https://www.careerbuilder.com/advice/blog/top-10-jobs-in-hospitality

In particularly if we are talking about if the majority of the jobs in this report are going to migrants then those are all of the low-wage variety.

That’s because there are entry level jobs. You are assuming that the lower end jobs was a what filled. And that’s a perfectly fine assumption. That’s why the median salary id whats important. So guessing that they are mostly low wage job is incorrect

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:01:54.565Z

Eagle-Keeper:

FreeAndClear:

This is an interesting point. When you saw low wage jobs - are they largely higher than the median salary?

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Right so healthcare and leisure and hospitality can be above that number

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:02:59.965Z

FreeAndClear:

leisure and hospitality

leisure and hospitality?
Really?
What am I missing?

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:03:29.345Z

Gaius:

FreeAndClear:

Same question for ya.

Does leisure hospitality snd healthcare pay higher or lower than the median

I’d have to guess that leisure hospitality pay below median and healthcare pays above median. (pure private sector vs spending someone else’s money)

Someone else’s money? Hospitals and medical offices primarily make their money from private insurance.

That’s the second time you denigrate healthcare jobs in one of these threads. What a weird hill

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:04:13.238Z

Gaius:

FreeAndClear:

leisure and hospitality

leisure and hospitality?
Really?
What am I missing?

Check out the salaries in the link that @Eagle-Keeper provided.

And then check out the graph that i posted. 57k median…….

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:08:17.136Z

My impression is that MS Copilot is correct in the following statement

Hospitality jobs in the United States have a wide range of salaries depending on the specific role, experience, and location1. On average, hospitality workers earn about $37,485 per year2. Entry-level positions typically start around $29,251 per year,

Note $37,485 div by 2000 hours = $18.74/hour

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:10:17.033Z

That median wage was for us or for leisure and hospitality? I am a little confused lol

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:13:30.640Z

I am under the impression that MS CoPilot (good, but not infallible) is correct.
Average hospitality workers earn $37,485 ($18.74).

@Eagle-Keeper googled the median wage for all US workers and got exactly the same number.

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:18:38.987Z

So they are very close or nearly identical?

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:20:47.374Z

FreeAndClear:

So they are very close or nearly identical?

Yes. apparently. (I thought hosptality and leisure was below norm. but I was wrong.)

Gaius · 2024-10-04T16:08:55.263Z

So an additonal 254,000 found jobs (that’s good)
while an additional 204,000 unemployed people joined the ranks of “marginally attacjed” (defined as “been searching, but gave up and haven’t looked in 4 weeks.”)

image775×474 147 KB

That’s bad.
That second part probably says more about the housing market than it does about Biden-Harris, but it is bad nonetheless. It sure would be a shame if things were bad and our leaders didn’t recognize it.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T17:42:43.288Z

Aslong as this line is above zero and rising,
we can expect a rainfall pitter-pat of good news in the short term.

image1205×500 32.9 KB

Cons and libs both agree on this.
Cons like myself (and gold bugs, and libertarians, and Austians etc.) tend to dismiss the good news as “temporary smoke and mirrors…”

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-04T21:24:04.064Z

Gaius:

FreeAndClear:

leisure and hospitality

leisure and hospitality?
Really?
What am I missing?

Here’s some more of a run down:

Hiring ramped up at food and drinking establishments to 69,000 in September – well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the past 12 months. The food and beverage industry was the primary source of the leisure and hospitality industry’s gain of 78,000 jobs.

The health care industry added about 45,000 jobs in September, though that represented a slow-down compared to the average monthly gain of 57,000 in the last year. Those gains were concentrated in home health care services (+12,700), hospitals (+11,500) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,400).

Hiring in the government sector rose again in September with a gain of 31,000 – though it was at a slower pace than the average of 45,000 a month in the past year. The sector’s gains last month were primarily among local government (+16,000) and state government (+13,000).

The social assistance industry added 26,500 jobs last month, most of which were in individual and family services (+21,200). Overall, the sector’s hiring was above the 21,000 a month average in the last year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/september-jobs-report-which-industries-hired-the-most-workers/ar-AA1rIa3U?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=9d19aea803544ed6a1a2de504d1e4e74&ei=20

I don’t believe the report says anything about the specific jobs and the salaries, correct? Personally, it’s likely fair to assume, especially if we are talking about foreign born workers then likely many of the jobs and salaries are comparable to this:

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2021/03/24/the-25-lowest-paying-jobs-in-america/#:~:text=Hairdressers,%20hairstylists,%20and%20cosmetologists%20work%20in%20one%20of

Unfortunately for many people in America the salaries are not keeping up with the cost of living:

Analyzing data from the US Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and housing marketplace Zillow, GOBankingRates found that to afford life in the most expensive cities in the US, Americans need a salary of at least $125,000. Even in the most affordable city on the list - Detroit - residents still need a yearly income of almost $65,000 in order to live comfortably.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/new-data-reveals-the-salary-needed-to-live-comfortably-across-the-us/ss-AA1rHplI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=221ec8c06b724b2aa41994aac8f8426c&ei=25#image=2

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-05T12:50:31.611Z

Gaius:

Aslong as this line is above zero and rising,
we can expect a rainfall pitter-pat of good news in the short term.

image1205×500 32.9 KB

Cons and libs both agree on this.
Cons like myself (and gold bugs, and libertarians, and Austians etc.) tend to dismiss the good news as “temporary smoke and mirrors…”

My thing is the cost of living and how that has outpaced salaries over the decades. I joke with my wife that we wouldn’t be able to afford our home if we had to pay today’s rates.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-salary-that-singles-need-to-live-comfortably-in-100-major-us-cities/ss-AA1nV6mB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=5d863640693a4e9dbc2f343b26d7e285&ei=87

Gaius · 2024-10-05T13:03:07.202Z

Eagle-Keeper:

My thing is the cost of living and how that has outpaced salaries over the decades. I joke with my wife that we wouldn’t be able to afford our home if we had to pay today’s rates.

There is no disputing that the cash cost of housing has outpaced wage increases.
Returning to normal interest rates has made that return even more harsh.

There is a “methodology problem” with the way economists include housing in the overall cost of living. (It’s not a conspiracy, but it is a serious problem.)

There is a very serious problem with the way the Fed responds to that and other challenges.

The chart above shows the Fed response moreon that later.