(10/04) Sept. Jobs report: Employment rises 0.16%, "discouraged workers" surges 21%

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:06:41.049Z

Impenitent:

a quarter of a million new jobs for 20 million illegals…

doesn’t pass the smell test

Unfotunately the BLS reports (and has always reported)
“native born” vs “born abroad” in Y-o-Y terms.
As we have discussed those tends are certainly bad.

But I’d have to dig out last month’s chart to compare the two to get M-o-M changes.

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Impenitent · 2024-10-04T14:09:41.052Z

that’s above board employees?

what about the millions of workers without social security numbers working under the table?

are they just selling fentanyl?

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:14:10.679Z

FreeAndClear:

Same question for ya.

Does leisure hospitality snd healthcare pay higher or lower than the median

I’d have to guess that leisure hospitality pay below median and healthcare pays above median. (pure private sector vs spending someone else’s money)

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-04T14:15:39.343Z

The majority of the jobs in this sector are low wage:

https://www.careerbuilder.com/advice/blog/top-10-jobs-in-hospitality

In particularly if we are talking about if the majority of the jobs in this report are going to migrants then those are all of the low-wage variety.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:16:29.373Z

Impenitent:

that’s above board employees?

what about the millions of workers without social security numbers working under the table?

are they just selling fentanyl?

LOL
well the monthly report is based on a pretty good survey.

We have no reason to believe more people are lying now than lied before,
so, while any two/all of the numbers may be wrong the survey does a good job of letting us compare two periods.

The data says we had a good month in a bad overall picture.

Eagle-Keeper · 2024-10-04T14:19:30.959Z

FreeAndClear:

This is an interesting point. When you saw low wage jobs - are they largely higher than the median salary?

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:24:15.592Z

Eagle-Keeper:

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Sounds about right.

Note also 50 weeks at 40 hours per week equals 2,000 hours/year so
37,585 = $18.74 per hour.

The following has been true for a long time

half of all US workers work at McWages
a significant portion of the other half live and work in expensive places (NYC) where $22 an hour is still a McWage.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T14:29:46.922Z

Looking now at the second part of the data

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“Marginally attached” up 204,000 in a single month including
“Discouraged workers” up 78,000 in a single month.

Best guess:
The constipated real estate market is having very very real implications for jobs and job-mobility. Jerome Powell has screwed so many people he should have an OnlyFans channel.

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:01:18.430Z

Eagle-Keeper:

The majority of the jobs in this sector are low wage:

https://www.careerbuilder.com/advice/blog/top-10-jobs-in-hospitality

In particularly if we are talking about if the majority of the jobs in this report are going to migrants then those are all of the low-wage variety.

That’s because there are entry level jobs. You are assuming that the lower end jobs was a what filled. And that’s a perfectly fine assumption. That’s why the median salary id whats important. So guessing that they are mostly low wage job is incorrect

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:01:54.565Z

Eagle-Keeper:

FreeAndClear:

This is an interesting point. When you saw low wage jobs - are they largely higher than the median salary?

So I just Googled Median wage for the US:

37,585 USD (2022)

Right so healthcare and leisure and hospitality can be above that number

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:02:59.965Z

FreeAndClear:

leisure and hospitality

leisure and hospitality?
Really?
What am I missing?

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:03:29.345Z

Gaius:

FreeAndClear:

Same question for ya.

Does leisure hospitality snd healthcare pay higher or lower than the median

I’d have to guess that leisure hospitality pay below median and healthcare pays above median. (pure private sector vs spending someone else’s money)

Someone else’s money? Hospitals and medical offices primarily make their money from private insurance.

That’s the second time you denigrate healthcare jobs in one of these threads. What a weird hill

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:04:13.238Z

Gaius:

FreeAndClear:

leisure and hospitality

leisure and hospitality?
Really?
What am I missing?

Check out the salaries in the link that @Eagle-Keeper provided.

And then check out the graph that i posted. 57k median…….

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:08:17.136Z

My impression is that MS Copilot is correct in the following statement

Hospitality jobs in the United States have a wide range of salaries depending on the specific role, experience, and location1. On average, hospitality workers earn about $37,485 per year2. Entry-level positions typically start around $29,251 per year,

Note $37,485 div by 2000 hours = $18.74/hour

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:10:17.033Z

That median wage was for us or for leisure and hospitality? I am a little confused lol

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:13:30.640Z

I am under the impression that MS CoPilot (good, but not infallible) is correct.
Average hospitality workers earn $37,485 ($18.74).

@Eagle-Keeper googled the median wage for all US workers and got exactly the same number.

FreeAndClear · 2024-10-04T15:18:38.987Z

So they are very close or nearly identical?

Gaius · 2024-10-04T15:20:47.374Z

FreeAndClear:

So they are very close or nearly identical?

Yes. apparently. (I thought hosptality and leisure was below norm. but I was wrong.)

Gaius · 2024-10-04T16:08:55.263Z

So an additonal 254,000 found jobs (that’s good)
while an additional 204,000 unemployed people joined the ranks of “marginally attacjed” (defined as “been searching, but gave up and haven’t looked in 4 weeks.”)

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That’s bad.
That second part probably says more about the housing market than it does about Biden-Harris, but it is bad nonetheless. It sure would be a shame if things were bad and our leaders didn’t recognize it.

Gaius · 2024-10-04T17:42:43.288Z

Aslong as this line is above zero and rising,
we can expect a rainfall pitter-pat of good news in the short term.

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Cons and libs both agree on this.
Cons like myself (and gold bugs, and libertarians, and Austians etc.) tend to dismiss the good news as “temporary smoke and mirrors…”